Leaving Out The Volatile Food and Energy Sectors
So this past month the Producer Price Index rose by 1.9% which, if it were sustained, would make an annual inflation rate in excess of 20%. Not to worry, when we take out the volatile food and energy sectors the increase is only 0.2%. Move it along folks there is nothing to see here.
Except that there is. Since this time last year, the Producer Price index has increased 9%. I suppose that it is much lower if we take out the volatile food and energy sectors but I would like to question the validity of this particular operation. In economics volatility means random, short term fluctuations - for example the day to day changes in stock prices. If the price of oil goes up by $10 a barrel today and then falls by the same amount next week we can speak of volatility.
If, as the result of these day to day price changes and random fluctuations over the course of a year, average producer prices rise by 9% then we are no longer talking about volatility. If it lasts a year then this is no longer a blip. It is inflation.
Wiser heads than I have pointed out that this is not the "bad" inflation such as we had in the 1970's. Indeed, because labor has virtually no power to negotiate its wages, we do not see a wage/price spiral. But I must note that oil producers do have considerable power to set their price so that we can expect a continuing oil price/price spiral.
Besides, the 1970's were a lot more fun.



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