Why Price Cuts Won't Work

An anonymous reader of this blog has suggested that we can ride out the current slump with pay cuts:
Seriously though, in disinflationary times like this it would really help to not have minimum wage laws, and we also need more flexible wages in general (sorry unions). That obviously doesn't solve the whole problem of recession, since the damage is already done to enough companies, but it could make recovery come sooner as those still in the black may have a better chance of weathering the storm if they can cut costs on labor.
With some implication that the drop in prices is an indication that labor is paid too much and we now have more labor and resources than society needs. For full text see here.

His suggestion is seconded, with considerably less smugness, by an Op Ed in today's NY Times. Wonks Anonymous expects that he is in numerous, if not good, company and would like to take some space to discuss the flaws in this reasoning.

This is an example of the fallacy of composition. That is the assumption that choices or situations that benefit individuals and firms, when they act alone, must benefit the economy as a whole when everybody does the same thing.

It is true that, when an individual industry or firm sees prices drop, this is a signal from the so called price system that society has too much of their output. In these circumstances it might be wise to cut prices, cut pay, cut output and consider finding a job elsewhere. When prices are more or less stable the amount of money that a good costs is a reliable indicator of the relative value of that good vis a vis other goods.

In inflation and deflation prices are no longer reliable signals. Producers quickly learn to discount inflation and do not respond to increasing prices with increased output.

In deflation producers try to cut prices and costs. To do so they follow the usual MBA approved methods. They lay people off, cut bonuses and go to the unions for concessions - for example cheaper health plans and lower retirement benefits. Everybody is doing it, right now, even as Wonks Anonymous writes this piece.

And people who see their incomes drop respond by cutting back on their purchases. Firms discover that the demand for their products has fallen still more. They cut production, prices and costs still more. Which cuts lead to further cuts in income and consumption. The cycle repeats. It will likely continue through the end of this year.

The cuts will cause further problems. Our money supply depends on loans. It increases if banks loan more and its continued health depends on repayment of these loans. As prices and incomes drop it becomes more difficult to repay old loans that were based on higher prices and higher incomes. Loans that were secure are transformed into junk. Cuts in the money supply lead to further cuts in demand.

Go up two paragraphs and repeat the process several times.

We cannot expect that wage and price cuts will lead us out of this one. Each time we cut output and wages, spending will drop. Lower spending will demand further cuts. We will never satisfy this monster.

Now it is obvious that the reader who made the comment and the writer in the Times both are college educated and have even taken some courses in economics. They could probably even talk at length about why increases in the supply of money in inflationary times are a bad idea. It is painfully obvious that they have never been introduced to Keynes General Theory which is a fine, readable exposition of how the economy works in a depression. It does, however, take some active thought and work to read and understand

Their class time was more likely taken up with general praise of the magic of the market, horror stories about hyperinflation and suggestions that tax cuts will cure all economic ills. These subjects can be easily taught without assigning or grading real homework etc. They are also more popular with deans students and parents.

 

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Comments

  • 12/6/2008 4:53 PM Anonymous wrote:
    I assume you would argue that the minimum wage should increase with inflation. Then why shouldn't it decrease with deflation?

    Everything you say in this post is true. My only point about the unions/minimum wage (and wage stickiness in general) was that it could be a hindrance to the short-term ability of companies to stay afloat--with or without layoffs. It is obviously not going to solve the problem with the recession, as I noted, which you have aptly described as a crisis spawned by the money supply's collapse. I am merely suggesting that capitalism work the same way on the downside (decreasing wages for factors of production with decreasing value) as it does on the upside (increasing wages for factors of production with increasing value). If wages get below subsistence level because of this then we should supplement people's income, but denying businesses cheap labor when they need it most isn't going to help anyone. If you _don't_ cut wages, then some industries will simply disappear (this is why the UAW is currently willing to sacrifice its firstborn in order to keep the Big Three alive and kicking). The way to revive demand is for the government to enter the market and stimulate, not for the government to require business to pay more for labor than it's worth.

    I am not a market fundie, by the way, and I take offense at the accusation :-p. I am just a pragmatist, and only occasionally a devil's advocate.
    Reply to this
  • 12/6/2008 6:10 PM Anonymous wrote:
    If you don't like wage cuts because they're such market fundie BS, there is another way that companies can and are reducing labor costs while minimizing layoffs: part-time employment. When their unions don't prevent them from doing so, of course.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t05.htm

    2.8 million more part-time workers for economic reasons since November 2007. 900 thousand more just from October to November. Compare that with the 500k jobs lost and think how many more it would have been if we had required companies to employ people full-time whether they liked it or not.

    Yes wage cuts and part time work feed into the vicious cycle of decreasing demand. So do layoffs and extinctions of entire industries. Nothing within the market system can save itself from low demand, that is why government demand is necessary to recover full employment. But that doesn't mean we should embrace inefficiencies in the system that we are about to stimulate.
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