To understand the current prospects for a Palestinian state on the West Bank you do not need a road map. However a simple map, published by the Foundation for Middle East Peace, will help.

The various colored squares and dots are active Israeli settlements. The colors and shapes indicate the date that the settlement was founded. The tan designates areas "controlled" by the Palestinian authority. The white areas are controlled by Israeli security forces. The blue line snaking through the map is the current projection of the route of the wall which Ariel Sharon started building as part of his disengagement plan.

The settlements follow a geographic pattern. The tan areas of Palestinian control are, for the most part, hill country. The white areas of Israeli control and settlement that penetrate the tan areas look like valleys because they are valleys. Rain and snow that fall on these porous hills filter down into the valleys where the water hits less porous rock and rises to the surface or near the surface.

In this part of the middle east land is useless without water and the settlements are meant to establish control over water rights. Water rights are already claimed by Israel and Wonks Anonymous has never seen any peace proposal put forward by Israel or the United States that includes a surrender of this claim.

Note also that many of the tan hills are dotted with red triangles - recent settlements and outposts. Feeling insecure in the valleys, surrounded by Arabs, the Israelis have sought to claim strategic parts of the high ground.

The implications of this observation for the economy of a future Palestinian state are enormous. But that is not what this post is about. Wonks Anonymous would like, instead, to call the reader's attention to the political implications of the pattern of settlements.

If events follow their current political trajectory it is unlikely that any of these settlements will be abandoned. The settlers may be a minority but Israeli politics is built on pandering to the demands of vocal and organized minorities. Indeed, a future Palestinian state will find itself enforcing a lengthy border that is more complex than the borders of a California congressional district.

And if the settlements, are not abandoned the security of the settlements and the settlers will necessarily become the joint responsibility of the Israeli and Palestinian states.

Now it is also unlikely that the Palestinian Authority will be able to establish any meaningful controls over the movements of settlers. Nor is it probable that Israel will allow a Palestinian state to arrest or detain its citizens. Even after the final status is attained we could not expect Israel to allow the Palestinians to arrest hooligans like those who recently ran amok in Hebron.

The future Palestinian state will need to find to keep the peace between its own people and hostile visitors who are effectively above its laws.

Nor is it likely that we can expect that the Israel will trust anyone else to respond to real and imagined threats to its citizens. It is unlikely that the future Palestinian State will be able to protect its citizens from arbitrary arrest or assassination if they are perceived to be a threat to Israelis.

Which we must admit is an entirely novel idea of the state: This is a state without enforceable borders. It is a state that can only enforce its laws on its own citizens even within its borders and must allow others to range free regardless of actions that they might take against its own citizens. In the final analysis it is a state which will not even be able to protect its own citizens against the hostile acts of another government.

It is a wonder to Wonks Anonymous that this final status, which could only seem advantageous to the current government of Israel, has been delayed for so long. Perhaps if it is realized it will be shown to be a sham.

Thanks to David Gelb who googled for this piece while Wonks Anonymous cared for his offspring.