Sometime in the next few months the economy is likely to hit bottom and begin anemic growth. At this point it is quite likely that the unemployment rate, the rate of bankruptcy, the foreclosure rate and any other economic indicators that matter to most of us, will continue to worsen. Nevertheless the economy will be "in recovery" according to the wise men and women who track such things.

Because recovery to the economist is a certain number of consecutive quarters of growth in national output, regardless of how the population is faring. This is explained to Wonks Anonymous by David Leonhardt at the Times thusly:

Chris, I understand that sentiment. It’s hard to imagine the economy improving even as unemployment is still rising. But I think it’s important to remember that this is exactly what’s happened in many other previous recessions.

After the 1990-91 recession, unemployment continued to rise until 1992 and didn't get back below its 1980s low until 1996 — but the economy was still improving during these years. They led directly into the late 1990s boom.

I’m not saying we’re going to get another boom like the one in the late 1990s. But unemployment often continues to rise even after the economic growth has started again. That doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is going to fall back into recession.

Of course we should also remember that by this definition recovery from the Crash of 1929 started in the first quarter of 1933 and that 1933 to 1937 was a period of economic growth.

Now Wonks Anonymous is a trained economist but he will be the first to admit that the language spoken by his profession often has only a distant connection to English. He attributes this fact to the general bias of economics in favor of the views and goals of the propertied classes.

Because, of course, if output is growing then there are many fine opportunities for profit. All the better when unemployment drives down wages.

Which would all be fine If it were not for this. As soon as some quarters of growth raise even a faint possibility of growth, some contributor to Economix, most likely Professor Mulligan, will call for a complete halt to the stimulus and dramatic cuts in federal spending. Because why?

Because we are in a recovery and, even though unemployment is over 10%, we now need to worry about inflation.