Liquidity Trap 101
This may sound trivial and stupid but here goes:
A demand for goods and services is also an offer to supply money.
We are paid money, a protean, all purpose sort of good which we then convert into other goods, Money is raw purchasing power and, when prices are reasonably stable, money is also an asset, a store of value.
Usually we change most of our money into goods and keep some of it aside as savings. Usually the money that we set aside as savings is quickly used to buy other assets. If we do not personally loan the money to our uncle, who has a sure fire scheme to run cars on dog waste, our bank loans it out for us. The borrower spends the money to buy goods and we, or our bank, get a piece of paper. A promise to pay back the loan with interest at a future time. We like this because it offers better returns than holding money which pays no interest.
Which usually works pretty well except that now two things have happened.
And of course the Chinese want to keep the value of their misbegotten currency down which they do by buying and holding dollars.
Everybody wants more money, and I mean this quite literally. Almost everyone has a plan to buy and hold more cash. In order to buy and hold more money they need to give up other goods and services.
Right now we seem to be pretty insensitive to the amount of goods and services we have to give up to get money. We know that we will be able convert the money into goods and services on very favorable terms in just a little while anyhow.
Which brings us back to the beginning of the post. the market for money is really not separate from the market for goods. If we want more money, regardless of the cost that we pay for it in terms of goods given up, then we will also limit our demand for goods, without much regard for decreases in the amount of money that we pay for those goods. These are just two sides of the same transaction.
Which brings us to the previous post. Right now we are not dealing with a failure of the labor market, either a failure of wages to drop fast enough or a perverse withdrawal of labor supply. Unemployment is caused by our current insatiable demand for secure assets which, in current circumstances, becomes a desire to build up hoards of money regardless of the cost.
A demand for goods and services is also an offer to supply money.
We are paid money, a protean, all purpose sort of good which we then convert into other goods, Money is raw purchasing power and, when prices are reasonably stable, money is also an asset, a store of value.
Usually we change most of our money into goods and keep some of it aside as savings. Usually the money that we set aside as savings is quickly used to buy other assets. If we do not personally loan the money to our uncle, who has a sure fire scheme to run cars on dog waste, our bank loans it out for us. The borrower spends the money to buy goods and we, or our bank, get a piece of paper. A promise to pay back the loan with interest at a future time. We like this because it offers better returns than holding money which pays no interest.
Which usually works pretty well except that now two things have happened.
- We have become much more frugal as our inflated estimations of the value of our assets have come back down to earth. We want to increase our savings. We want to increase our savings so badly that we will even do so if we get no interest or dividends in return.
- The interest rate on loans, adjusted to account for the risk that the borrower will default, has come pretty close to zero. None of the alternatives to holding money are as attractive as money.
And of course the Chinese want to keep the value of their misbegotten currency down which they do by buying and holding dollars.
Everybody wants more money, and I mean this quite literally. Almost everyone has a plan to buy and hold more cash. In order to buy and hold more money they need to give up other goods and services.
Right now we seem to be pretty insensitive to the amount of goods and services we have to give up to get money. We know that we will be able convert the money into goods and services on very favorable terms in just a little while anyhow.
Which brings us back to the beginning of the post. the market for money is really not separate from the market for goods. If we want more money, regardless of the cost that we pay for it in terms of goods given up, then we will also limit our demand for goods, without much regard for decreases in the amount of money that we pay for those goods. These are just two sides of the same transaction.
Which brings us to the previous post. Right now we are not dealing with a failure of the labor market, either a failure of wages to drop fast enough or a perverse withdrawal of labor supply. Unemployment is caused by our current insatiable demand for secure assets which, in current circumstances, becomes a desire to build up hoards of money regardless of the cost.



Thanks for pointing out so thoroughly why Casey Mulligan's logic makes my brain hurt. And you imply, but do not emphasize, that the effect of the Chinese hoarding dollars is to reduce dollars available domestically to buy US goods and thus increasing unemployment. So the Chinese currency problem IS the US unemployment problem. I'm not sure why the debate is over whether to enact a jobs stimulus. We'd just be doing it with money the Chinese lent us back that we sent to them for shipping us happy meal toys and lead coated plastic jewelry. The debate should be over how and how quickly to cut the cord with the Chinese. It's not clear to me why we need them. And we'd check off consumer products safety, unemployment, and the budget deficit off our to do list all in one move.
Actually we could finance the stimulus without the Chinese. since the Fall of 2008 our desired domestic savings has increased dramatically. We want to accumulate assets and with no other place to go bive our money to the bankers to hold. The government could offer us secure long term bonds - rates right now are between two and three percent - and use this to finance job creation until the economy got back its desire to grow.
-WA
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