And Chechnya was not Afghanistan. Much as the revolutionary romantics among us would like to believe - Wonks Anonymous used to be one - national liberation movements do not take on superpowers alone and win.

Ho Chi Minh had the political and economic support of the Soviet Union which, with his own abilities and the discipline of his followers, enabled him to hold out against and defeat the US. The Taliban was founded, organized and supported by the United States to fight the Soviets in an insane grudge match.

If Jimmy Carter had not had that bright idea back in the 1970's Afghanistan would still be suffering poverty repression and violence as a Soviet puppet state.

No one backed the Iraqi insurgents and the surge worked. The country is a mess and a great number of its citizens have chosen to live elsewhere. Violence is still common and will be for some time but the situation is not deteriorating. Maybe this is a good thing, maybe not. Same thing with Chechnya.

Which brings us to Afghanistan 2.0. Here the Taliban has had some support from our client and allay Pakistan. In particular the military seems to have preferred the cultivation of religious conflicts over fostering a civil society that might actually have wanted some power.

Given the recent behavior of the Taliban in Pakistan this support seems likely to wane. Memo to insurgents: Do not blow up your patrons.

Which makes it quite likely that Obama's surge will work. Maybe this is a good thing, maybe not.